[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

YABELO, 13 July (IRIN) - Guyo Goba has just turned 30. In a matter of weeks he will be installed as leader of Ethiopia’s 500,000 Boran pastoralists ­ a role he has spent the past 17 years being groomed for.

His appointment could not come at a more turbulent time for the Boran, a nomadic group inhabiting southern Ethiopia along the porous border with Kenya. They are threatened by dwindling lands, pressure on their way of life and deepening poverty. Moreover, an ancient tribal prophecy predicts their imminent demise.

Growing marginalisation of groups like the Borana is fuelling those fears. "It is a heavy responsibility for me and it is constantly on my mind," said Guyo, whose youngish features belie his age and responsibilities. His reticent responses to questions put to him about the role awaiting him do not reflect unease or shyness, but the strict training that teaches future leaders to quietly observe without making judgements.

The Boran are part of the Oromo tribe, which is Ethiopia's largest ethnic group, numbering about 30 million people. Pastoralist groups like the Boran total nine million people in the country.

POISED TO FACE GREAT CHANGES

Although once inward looking, the Boran and their political leaders have now come to realise that the outside world is encroaching on their very way of life. They have seen key spiritual sites lost to farmers and refugees who had fled from the former regime relocated onto their lands after its overthrow in 1991.

Anthropologist Dr Marco Bassi says it is the loss of two key dry-season grazing lands to farmers that is now posing the greatest threat to the pastoralists. "Agriculture was promoted at a scale that has never been seen before, and it was expanded into two of the crucial dry-season grazing lands," Bassi told IRIN. "These were the areas where they moved the cattle when there is less rain. Now that this is lost - completely taken by agriculture - the system has basically collapsed. The natural resource management system is at the edge of total collapse," he warned.

He says this is why the Gadaa ­ essentially their government system ­ is turning outwards in an effort to and resolve the problem created by the growing influx of agriculturalists that is affecting their lives. "They realise that if they don’t do it now, then they are lost: the Boran livelihood system is finished," added Bassi, who has spent the last 20 years studying the Boran, and three years living amongst them.

The Gadaa is a system enabling the various Boran clans ­ known as gosa ­ to coordinate their use of important resources like water. It is a uniquely democratic political and social institution  governing the life of every individual in the society from birth to death. It also guides the religious and economic life of the Boran, as well as their philosophy, art, history and even methods of timekeeping.

INTERNAL POLITICAL SYSTEM

Gadaa invests in the people the power to administer their own affairs, including that of enacting legislation. Every individual has the right to air his views in any public gathering without fear, this being one of the reasons why the Boran have remained unaffected by intra-clan conflicts. But, most importantly, this is the system which governs the Boran's use of the natural resources.

Guyo is due to become the Abbaa Gadaa ­ the father of the Gadaa, a generational class that assumes ritual, political and religious duties for an eight-year term of office. He essentially has a team of advisers, who collectively comprise the legitimate leadership of the Boran, as identified by their blue headscarves. "They were not used to dealing with modernity," Bassi continued, saying that Boran society as a whole now needed the knowledge in order to counter threats to their culture.

"Now there is a big change, and they are engaging systematically with government and NGOs, which is a new development," he said. "This is also dangerous, as there is no customary way for them to deal with that [threat] and [it] could very easily destroy the basic principles that lie at the root of the Gadaa  - that of unity, Bassi added.

"He [Guyo] is looking at what is happening very carefully and analysing how it can affect them. But the problem with the Boran now is that they don’t have the knowledge about this other environment they are dealing with: this is their central problem. In Borana [land] there is no king; he must go to the people and they decide. But they must have the knowledge first. We should give the Boran the instruments to analyse and deal with the new events," he said.

Guyo will take up the mantle at the Gumii Gaayoo ­ the Boran’s supreme decision-making body that meets every eight years and whose next assembly is in August. Several thousand Boran will gather for the meeting, which usually lasts two or three days, and it is where the laws for the coming eight years are thrashed out and agreed.

THREAT POSED BY AGRICULTURAL ENCROACHMENT

This year, one of the key features that will emerge at their Gumii Gaayoo is the increasing threat from farming and from agriculturalists using their land. And one of the central debates due to take place will be whether to decide to outlaw farming. Laws governing water and pasture usage, as well as marriage, are also likely to come up.

"Functionally speaking, this is the parliament, and is totally egalitarian and one of the most democratic structures in the world," added Bassi, an associate professor of anthropology at Bologna University in Italy. "There are many mechanisms by which their power is challenged and balanced. The Boran do not like anyone to be the dominant member of society," he said. "There are all these checks and balances in place to prevent a dominating force."

Four key structures act as that brake on abuses of power: a council ­ known as the Ya, the Gumii Gaayoo, and the clans themselves. And then they also have spiritual advisers known as the Qaallu, who play a role in shaping the political systems of the Boran. However, whereas all these are politically important, they do not have political power; the religion of the Boran, which is monotheistic with similarities to Christianity and Islam, is separated from politics.

MANAGEMENT OF SCARCE RESOURCES

"They also have entire systems of natural resource management, which prevent the dominance of one particular group," Bassi continued. "It means that for scarce resources like water, each individual can only use one-quarter of the output from a well, so it is better to distribute it for prestige."

Guyo is currently taking part in dozens of ritual ceremonies in Borana, an area the size of Switzerland, in preparation for his appointment. "We have to work to make sure those things that threaten us can be turned around to support us," Guyo said as he prepared for more rituals. "Although it will be difficult, I have the advice of elders and the consent of the community."